Continuous evolution and emerging lineage of seasonal human coronaviruses: A multicenter surveillance study.

The seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have zoonotic origins, repeated infections, and global transmission. The objectives of this study are to elaborate the epidemiological and evolutionary characteristics of HCoVs from patients with acute respiratory illness. We conducted a multicenter surveillance at 36 sentinel hospitals of Beijing Metropolis, China, during 2016-2019. Patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) were included, and submitted respiratory samples for screening HCoVs by multiplex real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assays. All the positive samples were used for metatranscriptomic sequencing to get whole genomes of HCoVs for genetical and evolutionary analyses. Totally, 321 of 15 677 patients with ILI or SARI were found to be positive for HCoVs, with an infection rate of 2.0% (95% confidence interval, 1.8%-2.3%). HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1 infections accounted for 18.7%, 38.3%, 40.5%, and 2.5%, respectively. In comparison to ILI cases, SARI cases were significantly older, more likely caused by HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43, and more often co-infected with other respiratory pathogens. A total of 179 full genome sequences of HCoVs were obtained from 321 positive patients. The phylogenetical analyses revealed that HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-OC43 continuously yielded novel lineages, respectively. The nonsynonymous to synonymous ratio of all key genes in each HCoV was less than one, indicating that all four HCoVs were under negative selection pressure. Multiple substitution modes were observed in spike glycoprotein among the four HCoVs. Our findings highlight the importance of enhancing surveillance on HCoVs, and imply that more variants might occur in the future.

Trafficked Malayan pangolins contain viral pathogens of humans.

Pangolins are the most trafficked wild animal in the world according to the World Wildlife Fund. The discovery of SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses in Malayan pangolins has piqued interest in the viromes of these wild, scaly-skinned mammals. We sequenced the viromes of 161 pangolins that were smuggled into China and assembled 28 vertebrate-associated viruses, 21 of which have not been previously reported in vertebrates. We named 16 members of Hunnivirus, Pestivirus and Copiparvovirus pangolin-associated viruses. We report that the L-protein has been lost from all hunniviruses identified in pangolins. Sequences of four human-associated viruses were detected in pangolin viromes, including respiratory syncytial virus, Orthopneumovirus, Rotavirus A and Mammalian orthoreovirus. The genomic sequences of five mammal-associated and three tick-associated viruses were also present. Notably, a coronavirus related to HKU4-CoV, which was originally found in bats, was identified. The presence of these viruses in smuggled pangolins identifies these mammals as a potential source of emergent pathogenic viruses.

Epidemic and control of COVID-19 in Niger: quantitative analyses in a least developed country.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging the public health response system worldwide, especially in poverty-stricken, war-torn, and least developed countries (LDCs). METHODS: We characterized the epidemiological features and spread dynamics of COVID-19 in Niger, quantified the effective reproduction number (Rt ), evaluated the impact of public health control measures, and estimated the disease burden. RESULTS: As of 4 July 2020, COVID-19 has affected 29 communes of Niger with 1093 confirmed cases, among whom 741 (67.8%) were males. Of them 89 cases died, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 8.1%. Both attack rates and CFRs were increased with age (P < 0.0001). Health care workers accounted for 12.8% cases. Among the reported cases, 39.3% were isolated and treated at home, and 42.3% were asymptomatic. 74.6% cases were clustered in Niamey, the capital of Niger. The Rt fluctuated in correlation to control measures at different outbreak stages. After the authorities initiated the national response and implemented the strictest control measures, Rt quickly dropped to below the epidemic threshold (<1), and maintained low level afterward. The national disability-adjusted life years attributable to COVID-19 was 1267.38 years in total, of which years of life lost accounted for over 99.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Classic public health control measures such as prohibition of public gatherings, travelling ban, contact tracing, and isolation and quarantine at home, are proved to be effective to contain the outbreak in Niger, and provide guidance for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in LDCs.

An Optimal Nucleic Acid Testing Strategy for COVID-19 during the Spring Festival Travel Rush in Mainland China: A Modelling Study.

Western countries are experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths due to increasing public transportation during holiday seasons. This study aimed to explore whether mainland China will face an epidemic rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, when millions of Chinese people travel across the country, and investigate which nucleic acid testing (NAT) strategy is optimal to contain the epidemic. A microsimulation model was used to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission among railway travelers and evaluated the effects of various NAT strategies. An extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was built to forecast local transmission during the Spring Festival period under different scenarios of testing strategies. The total number of infections, testing burden, and medical expenditure were calculated to devise an optimal strategy during the Spring Festival travel rush. Assuming the daily incidence of 20 per 10 million persons, our model simulated that there would be 97 active infections on the day of travel among 10 million railway passengers without NAT and symptom screening. Pre-travel testing could reduce the number of active infections. Compared with no NAT, testing passengers from risk tier 2-4 regions 3 days before travelling could significantly reduce the risk of transmission, and it is more economical and efficient than testing for all passengers.

Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics in relation to interventions against the COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in mainland China. DESIGN: Comparative study based on a unique data set of COVID-19 and SARS. SETTING: Outbreak in mainland China. PARTICIPANTS: The final database included 82 858 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5327 cases of SARS. METHODS: We brought together all existing data sources and integrated them into a comprehensive data set. Individual information on age, sex, occupation, residence location, date of illness onset, date of diagnosis and clinical outcome was extracted. Control measures deployed in mainland China were collected. We compared the epidemiological and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 and SARS. We estimated the effective reproduction number to explore differences in transmission dynamics and intervention effects. RESULTS: Compared with SARS, COVID-19 affected more extensive areas (1668 vs 230 counties) within a shorter time (101 vs 193 days) and had higher attack rate (61.8 vs 4.0 per million persons). The COVID-19 outbreak had only one epidemic peak and one epicentre (Hubei Province), while the SARS outbreak resulted in two peaks and two epicentres (Guangdong Province and Beijing). SARS-CoV-2 was more likely to infect older people (median age of 52 years), while SARS-CoV tended to infect young adults (median age of 34 years). The case fatality rate (CFR) of either disease increased with age, but the CFR of COVID-19 was significantly lower than that of SARS (5.6% vs 6.4%). The trajectory of effective reproduction number dynamically changed in relation to interventions, which fell below 1 within 2 months for COVID-19 and within 5.5 months for SARS. CONCLUSIONS: China has taken more prompt and effective responses to combat COVID-19 by learning lessons from SARS, providing us with some epidemiological clues to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.

Impacts of transportation and meteorological factors on the transmission of COVID-19.

The ongoing pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is challenging global public health response system. We aim to identify the risk factors for the transmission of COVID-19 using data on mainland China. We estimated attack rate (AR) at county level. Logistic regression was used to explore the role of transportation in the nationwide spread. Generalized additive model and stratified linear mixed-effects model were developed to identify the effects of multiple meteorological factors on local transmission. The ARs in affected counties ranged from 0.6 to 9750.4 per million persons, with a median of 8.8. The counties being intersected by railways, freeways, national highways or having airports had significantly higher risk for COVID-19 with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 1.40 (p = 0.001), 2.07 (p < 0.001), 1.31 (p = 0.04), and 1.70 (p < 0.001), respectively. The higher AR of COVID-19 was significantly associated with lower average temperature, moderate cumulative precipitation and higher wind speed. Significant pairwise interactions were found among above three meteorological factors with higher risk of COVID-19 under low temperature and moderate precipitation. Warm areas can also be in higher risk of the disease with the increasing wind speed. In conclusion, transportation and meteorological factors may play important roles in the transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China, and could be integrated in consideration by public health alarm systems to better prevent the disease.

Age-dependent Gender Differences in COVID-19 in Mainland China: Comparative Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging the global public health system. Sex differences in infectious diseases are a common but neglected problem. METHODS: We used the national surveillance database of COVID-19 in mainland China to compare gender differences in attack rate (AR), proportion of severe and critical cases (PSCC), and case fatality rate (CFR) in relation to age, affected province, and onset-to-diagnosis interval. RESULTS: The overall AR was significantly higher in females than in males (63.9 vs 60.5 per 1 million persons; P ˂ .001). In contrast, PSCC and CFR were significantly lower among females (16.9% and 4.0%) than among males (19.5% and 7.2%), with odds ratios of 0.87 and 0.57, respectively (both P ˂ .001). The female-to-male differences were age dependent, and were significant among people aged 50-69 years for AR and in patients aged 30 years or older for both PSCC and CFR (all P ≤ .001). The AR, PSCC, and CFR varied greatly from province to province. However, female-to-male differences in AR, PSCC, and CFR were significant in the epicenter, Hubei province, where 82.2% confirmed cases and 97.4% deaths occurred. After adjusting for age, affected province, and onset-to-diagnosis interval, the female-to-male difference in AR, PSCC, and CFR remained significant in multivariate logistic regression analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We elucidate an age-dependent gender dimorphism for COVID-19, in which females have higher susceptibility but lower severity and fatality. Further epidemiological and biological investigations are required to better understand the sex-specific differences for effective interventions.